Ecology is a treasure trove of theoretical concepts that have inspired thinking across scientific disciplines. Lakes have been a particularly useful subject for linking dynamical systems theory to the behavior of real complex systems. Tipping points, cycles, chaos, resilience, and self-organization may all be seen under water if you have an eye for it. But that is also where the catch is. Theories are necessarily double-edged swords. They help to make sense of the world, but they are always incomplete and imply the risk of tunnel vision. In this session, Denny Borsboom and Marten Scheffer discuss the successes, promises, and challenges of applying tipping theory to nature, humans, and society.

Speakers

Marten Scheffer

Marten Scheffer is interested in unravelling the mechanisms that determine the stability and resilience of complex systems. Although much of his work has focused on ecosystems, he also worked with a range of scientists from other disciplines to address issues of stability and shifts in natural and social systems. Examples include the feedback between atmospheric carbon and the earth temperature, the collapse of ancient societies, inertia and shifts in public opinion, evolutionary emergence of patterns of species similarity, the effect of climatic extremes on forest dynamics and the balance of facilitation and competition in plant communities.

Denny Borsboom

Denny Borsboom has a long standing fascination with the relation between data and theory in the context of psychological measurement. He has developed the idea that psychological variables (e.g., symptoms of depression) are not indicators of a latent condition (e.g., a common cause in the brain) but instead are connected in a network of causal interactions. As a result, they display phenomena very similar to those observed in ecosystems: synchronisation, emergent order, and possibly phase transitions.

About the organiser

Marten Scheffer is interested in unravelling the mechanisms that determine the stability and resilience of complex systems. Although much of his work has focused on ecosystems, he also worked with a range of scientists from other disciplines to address issues of stability and shifts in natural and social systems. Examples include the feedback between atmospheric carbon and the earth temperature, the collapse of ancient societies, inertia and shifts in public opinion, evolutionary emergence of patterns of species similarity, the effect of climatic extremes on forest dynamics and the balance of facilitation and competition in plant communities.