DIEP seminar by Robbin Bastiaansen
Sudden and abrupt irreversible changes can occur in nonlinear complex systems within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point due to changes in external forcing. Examples include desertification of dryland ecosystem, weakening of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the diffusion of innovation, financial market crashes, or restructurings of brain dynamics. There are now also many theoretical studies, where tipping points are related to bifurcation in dynamical systems - often very simple models with few variables, timescales, and/or no spatial component. By contrast, the real systems are typically large multi-scale systems, meaning that there many temporal (and spatial) scales in play. In this talk, I will talk about the tipping dynamics in some conceptual but multiscale models and highlight how the tipping dynamics in these multiscale systems can be more nuanced than naive theory suggests. In particular, I will focus on the importance of timescales, and show examples where tipping dynamics of isolated and coupled systems might lead to late surprises, failure of early warning signs or appear reversible.
If you wish to attend this seminar online, please send an email to r.lier@uva.nl to receive the zoom-link.