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This symposium brings together researchers across the biological and social sciences to address the promise and needs of theories, models, and measures designed to capture how different systems adapt to unpredictable environments across time scales and levels of analysis.
Event details of Adapting to an unpredictable world: How do our theories, models, and measures rise to the challenge?
Date
16 February 2026
Time
09:00 -17:00
Room
Sweelinck Room

How do systems change through time in response to environments that are not fully predictable? Researchers across the biological and social sciences have tackled this question using a variety of theories, models, and measurement tools designed to capture adaptations across different systems, time scales, and levels of analysis. The resulting diversity of approaches offers substantial promise for advancing understanding of adaptive processes. At the same time, meaningful integration across approaches and disciplines can be challenging, as different frameworks prioritize distinct aspects of adaptation and necessarily simplify others to develop tractable ways to address this complex topic.

This symposium seeks to to explore productive points of connection and contrast across disciplines by bringing together researchers across psychology, neuroscience, biological anthropology, ecology, epidemiology, and education to engage with a shared set of questions:

  • Where do you see the greatest promise and most pressing needs for theories, models, and measures to advance understanding of how systems adapt to unpredictable environments?
  •  Which aspects of adaptations in response to unpredictable environments do you prioritize (e.g., which systems, time scales, or levels of analysis), and why? Which aspects do you deprioritize or simplify, and why?

By highlighting advances and gaps in theory development, model testing, measurement innovation, and interdisciplinary collaboration, the meeting aims to foster cross-disciplinary dialogue and to chart pathways toward frameworks that more fully reflect the complexity and adaptiveness of how systems respond to unpredictable environments.

Programme

09:00 Arrival and coffee
09:30 Welcome and introductions: Yuko Munakata
09:40 Willem Frankenhuis: Bridging timescales in unpredictability research
10:00 Marjolein Bruijning: The evolution of phenotypic variance
10:20 Nicole Walasek and Stefan Vermeent: Measuring the Unpredictable: Subjective and Objective Approaches to Environmental Variability
10:45 Break with refreshments
11:10 Harm Krugers: Stress and adaptation
11:30 Aniko Korosi: Nutritional strategies to counteract the early-life adversity-induced impact on cognitive functions
11:50 Break
12:00 Discussion in small groups and share out moderated by Seth Pollak
12:30 Lunch provided
13:30 Recap of morning themes by Willem Frankenhuis 
13:40 Seth Pollak: Unpredictability and Child Development
14:00 Yuko Munakata: How children adapt to unpredictability in the moment and across developmental trajectories
14:20 Break 
14:45 ​Anne-Laura van Harmelen: Resilience after adversity, it is complex.
15:05 Wouter van den Bos: Developmental Changes in Exploration Trade-offs Across Adolescence
15:25

Discussion in small groups and share out: Moderated by Nicole Walasek and Stefan Vermeent

15:55 Closing
16:00 Drinks and bites
17:00 End

About the organizers

Yuko Munakata is a Professor in the Department of Psychology and Center for Mind and Brain at the University of California, Davis and an IAS Research Fellow September 2025-February 2026.

Willem Frankenhuis is an Associate Professor of Evolutionary Psychobiology at the University of Amsterdam and a Senior Researcher at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law.