DIEP seminar by Bernd Blasius
Global trade is a major driver of biological invasions, accelerating the homogenization of biotas worldwide. This presentation shows how complex systems science can be used to better understand global transportation networks, quantify bioinvasion risks, reconstruct historical invasion dynamics, and anticipate future changes under climate change. The presentation will begin by introducing a marine bioinvasion model based on a reconstruction of the global cargo shipping network. The model predicts invasion risks across ecoregions and identifies species most likely to arrive next in each habitat. Model outputs align with empirical observations and reveal a pattern of maximal invasion risk at intermediate geographic distances. Next, Prof. Blasius will analyse a global database of invasion events over several centuries and show that historical spreading dynamics follow a broad, power-law-like distribution that can be captured by a simple, universal stochastic process. Finally, he will assess how projected declines in Arctic sea ice may alter global shipping routes, finding that emerging Arctic passages could shorten nearly one-fifth of all routes by an average of 4,000 km. To predict the implications for invasion risks, Prof. Blasius will introduce statistical models that project the rearrangement of shipping intensities in the altered navigation-geometry.
Bernd Blasius works at the description of complex living systems at the interface of theoretical ecology and applied mathematics. Using modern tools from statistical physics, complex networks, dynamical systems theory and data science, he aims to obtain fundamental insights into the organization of living systems, but he is also concerned with the application of such concepts to specific biological systems and tangible applications. Major research activities include such diverse fields as population dynamics and species interactions in spatially extended environments, biodiversity, bioinvasion and epidemic spread, evolution and adaptation, animal navigation and search strategies, origins of life, microbiology, and marine biogeochemistry.
If you wish to attend this seminar online, please send an email to r.lier@uva.nl to receive the zoom-link.