At this POLDER community event, Prof. Etiënne Rouwette from Radboud University will give a presentation about the methodology of participatory scenario development, followed by coffee and cake and a collective brainstorm about social tipping points projects. The event will conclude with a borrel.

Engaged decision making: Thinking in plausible futures

Will there be a new pandemic? How will Artificial Intelligence develop and which jobs will it affect? Can the worst effects of climate change still be prevented? Answers to these questions have consequences for persons and organisations around the world. In long term planning, analysing the potential future paths of these trends is known as scenario exploration. Participatory scenario development involves stakeholders in generating trends and developments in the context of their organisation. These trends are combined into a set of plausible scenarios. The question that then follows logically is ‘if the future looks like this, what can we do to prepare?’ By analysing what works well across scenarios, in effect using scenarios as a test bed for strategic actions, scenario analysis helps to identify robust options. This presentation covers the methodology of participatory scenario development and places it in the context of a wider set of methods to support team decision making.

About Etiënne Rouwette

Etiënne's research interests include group decision making processes and their effect on participants’ attitudes and behavior. Etiënne currently supervises PhD researchers interested in negotiation, the use of decision aids in health care, and modeling complex issues in health care, cybersecurity, service delivery and circular economy. As part of this research, Etiënne participated in and conducted a large number of research projects in profit and non-profit organizations. Etiënne is Past President of the System Dynamics Society and co-author of the new book Engaged Decision Making: From Team Knowledge to Team Decisions.

Programme