My research

My research examines the political economy of wartime macroeconomic policy, focusing on how states coordinate fiscal and monetary instruments under large-scale shocks. Using Ukraine as a central case, I analyse institutional resilience, distributional effects, adaptive policy responses, and the long-term implications of conflict for development trajectories. I also study the geoeconomic dimensions of wartime policymaking, including how external dependencies and international power relations shape domestic macroeconomic choices.
More broadly, my work examines how governments build policy credibility, shape expectations and maintain macroeconomic stability under extreme uncertainty, drawing on macroeconomic theory, comparative political economy, geoeconomics and evidence from ongoing wartime policymaking.

IAS Fellowship

Aligned with the UvA IAS mission, this project examines how wartime fiscal and monetary policies adapt within complex and dynamic environments, and which institutional configurations enable states to preserve macroeconomic stability under systemic shocks. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine provides a rare natural experiment for analysing macroeconomic complexity under extreme uncertainty. In this setting, fiscal–monetary interactions extend beyond conventional analytical frameworks: expectations are highly unstable, institutional feedback mechanisms are non-linear, and policy credibility hinges on both domestic state capacity and international coordination.

The project situates wartime Ukraine within broader debates in crisis macroeconomics, resilience theory, and complex adaptive systems, focusing on how policy decisions emerge and evolve when economic, political, and social subsystems interact dynamically.

During the fellowship, I will collaborate with my co-applicant, Prof. dr. F. J. G. M. Franc Klaassen (University of Amsterdam), the Macro and International Economics section of the UvA Economics Department, the Complexity in Economics and Finance group, with particular emphasis on methodological development for analysing non-linear dynamics and feedback mechanisms in wartime macroeconomic systems.