My research

I am an economist with an interest in dynamic adaptive processes arising from various interactions of bounded rational individuals. I try to understand their decision-making, learning from others, and in particular their forecasting behaviour. I am interested in under which conditions and how those small decisions lead to orderly aggregated patterns. To understand these processes, I apply theoretical models, computational methods and controlled laboratory experiments with human subjects.

IAS fellowship

At IAS, I intend to study recent advances in experimental economics, psychology, and neuroscience of the determinants of the choice between several alternatives. I would like to build on the experimental evidence and develop analytically tractable low-scale Heterogeneous Agent Models (HAM) with more realistic switching between behavioural rules than the literature uses now. For example, there is evidence suggesting that the intensity of choice, an important parameter of the HAMs, depends on the time series properties of the state variable (such as price or inflation). To enlarge the models and improve their descriptive and forecasting abilities, I plan to use the methods of dynamical system modelling. Micro-founded decision processes driving an agent’s choice between various decision rules or heuristics should also inform computational, agent-based models. Relatedly, I would also like to look at the recent evidence on how people make predictions of the time series, and what properties of the time series affect their predictions.