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Online expert meeting to discuss how the most important aspects of the Dutch contact network can be implemented in a transmission model in a parsimonious way.

Event details of Parsimonious representations of the Dutch contact network for COVID-19 modelling
Date 3 July 2020
Time 12:30 -13:30
Initiator: Luc Coffeng

About the topic

Mathematical models for transmission have become central to informing COVID-19-related policy. Now the epidemic is more or less under control, resurgence of infection is expected to occur more locally and sporadically. To develop an evidence base for an optimal tracing, testing, and isolation (TTI) strategy, it is important that mathematical models capture those characteristics of the Dutch contact network that are essential to COVID-19 epidemiology and control. The RIVM model does not consider any geographical components. In contrast, the Ferguson model used in the UK considers a plethora of heterogeneities, making it rather unwieldy and error-prone. Somewhere in the middle, the virsim model developed by De Vlas & Coffeng considers geographical heterogeneity and mixing in an abstract fashion, without considering different types of network connections. We would like to discuss how the most important aspects of the Dutch contact network can be implemented in a transmission model in a parsimonious way. Can explicit, detailed network graphs be captured by simpler representations (i.e. lower complexity and computational load) that have the same features that are relevant to the epidemiology and control of COVID-19?

Participants

  • Ron Beute, Mezuro
  • Denny Borsboom, University of Amsterdam
  • Luc Coffeng, Erasmus MC (initiator)
  • Daan Crommelin, University of Amsterdam and CWI
  • Mark Dekker, Utrecht University 
  • Remco van der Hofstad, Eindhoven University of Technology
  • Nelly Litvak, University of Twente
  • Piet van Mieghem, Delft University of Technology
  • Deb Panja, Utrecht University
  • Frank Pijpers, Statistics Netherlands
  • Rick Quax, University of Amsterdam
  • Peter Sloot, University of Amsterdam
  • Wim Steenbakkers, Mezuro
  • David van de Vijver, Erasmus MC
  • Sake de Vlas, Erasmus MC
  • Bert Zwart, Eindhoven University of Technology

About the series: 'The COVID-19 pandemic: time to reflect'

Together with Science versus Corona, we organise a series of discussions to foster exchange, debate and collaboration between the disciplines. Researchers are invited to initiate new discussions by proposing a theme.